Monday, 13 September 2010
I read an FT article on a research note put out by a Tech analyst at UBS over the weekend. It predicts Apple will shift 28 million I Pads globally in 2011 - having already seen 3 million fly of the shelves since launch in April.
I myself have seen how Apple's rolling release approach gets markets literally frothing with desire. IPad hits Poland later this month - and tech nuts are getting quite over excited
Seeing these "conservatives' figures from UBS will probably have Apple pretty chipper too - whilst the competition will be playing a long, painful game of catch up. This infographic (courtesy of http://analyticsarbitrage.blogspot.com) really demestrates Apples enviable position in this market.
Thursday, 2 September 2010
Wednesday, 1 September 2010
Monday, 16 August 2010
I just read the news of a gastly accident during the "California 200" an off-road truck race event that occured this Saturday night.
A racing truck, travelling through at dusk through the Mojave desert flipped when taking on a 'rock pile' and crashed into a group of spectators. The resulting carnage left 8 dead and many more badly injured.
Naturally in the digital age, people were filming the event on phones and cameras - some of this footage found its way very quickly to the traditional news outlets and then to You Tube.
Unfortunately, it seems no one at Google/You Tube pre-checked the pre-roll ad that CBS had running in the lead into this horrific news item. The result - an ad (at least when I viewed twice) for All-State insurance featuring a car getting rear-ended.
Clearly this is a hugely unfortunate error - probably due to lack of proper tagging, but also due perhaps to a lack of supervision by the agency/CBS/You Tube/and maybe even the client Allstate. Either way, lessons need to be learnt form this as more and more digital display money goes into pre-roll ads and more viewers use You Tube as a primary source of news footage.
Thursday, 29 July 2010
I think this illustrates a couple of interesting developments at Sky.
So there is diversification going on to shore up subscribers, but also I feel this is part of a confident Sky move to strike for audience growth also as rivals ITV and Channel 4 go through a period of upheaval and re-gearing - with new management teams and profit short-falls.
Sky is reported to have a content development/acquisition pot of 1.7 bn GBP - versus BBC 2 (who originally screened The Wire to great acclaim) having c. 500 mill GBP. It is certain that Channel 4's programming budget will be under increased public scrutiny - indeed this HBO deal really feels like the sort of deal Channel 4 would have been 1st in line for 4-5 years ago. And ITV seem to struggle for consistency in either produced or bought in formats.
It also means that The Wire will soon be on the broadcast sponsorship market - who will be first in the queue? The Baltimore Tourist Authority perhaps?
Wednesday, 23 June 2010
As we enter the end of the group stage of the World Cup finals in South Afirca. It's not just teams like England. Germany and Portugal who nervously await their fate, the lack of progress into the knockout stages will have serious financial and status implications. The financial gold-mine that is the World Cup is also a vital time for many of the world's biggest brands. Will there huge investments to become FIFA partners pay off? Brands such as McDonald's and Hyundai have spent 100s of millions of US$ to be part of the world's biggest sporting event over the last 10-12 years.
Another brand looking nervously at its investment is Adidas. As official sportswear partner of the World Cup finals, Adidas gets a huge boost at every finals - from player and team endorsement through to pitch-side perimeter boards and sponsored TV coverage in certain territories. However there is a dark spectre making Adidas very nervous, and that is its old rival Nike. Nike have continued their policy of become official partner of the FIFA event, but they stick to their 'ambush marketing' strategy plus massive sums paid to individual players and football federations to supply kits.
Nike have already claimed to be the winner in this mammoth head to head of the sports giants. This seems a little premature but Nike feel they are winning the battle of the buzz. According to Nielsen Buzzmetrics, Nike have achieved a 30.2% of the brand buzz around South Africa 2010, while Adidas trail with 14%. Time will tell but it does throw up interesting questions about how brands track and quantify their social media efforts.
One interesting tool that came to are attention a little while ago is Famecount http://http//www.famecount.com/all-platforms/Worldwide/all/Brand a free service which creates a % Famecount or index for brands by aggregating their performance across Facebook, Twitter and You Tube. Topping the Famecount brand charts right now is Starbucks, mostly due to its 8 million Facebook friends and near 1 million Twitter followers. Starbucks embraced social media some time ago, so they have been adding friends and followers in a gradual organic manner, hence their Famecount of 68.8%. In second place sits uber-brand Coca-Cola with 52% and Pepsi nowhere to be seen. Coke's closest category rival in the social space appears to be Red Bull, thanks in part to more You Tube channel subscribers. Clearly a reflection of the original content Red Bull as a brand prides itself on and which indeed its brand DNA is built on.
What is interesting is that few of the top 20 brands in the survey are doing particularly well with their You Tube strategy. While Famecount assigns the lowest value to You Tube (25% vs 45% for Facebook and 30% for Twitter), a well executed You Tube channel can be incredibly powerful for brands. Hence the virtually unknown outside of social media, Blendtec, achieving a position of 39th, just behind Pizza Hut and ahead of Blackberry. All on a spend in the region of a few $100,000 versus $100,000,000. The Blendtec channel, "Will it Blend" is a cult success, with brand owner Tom Dickson blending everything from golf balls to an I Pad. As of mid June 2010, the brand has received over 117 million views on You Tube.
Famecount certainly does illustrate how smaller brands can and are outwitting their bigger spending rivals with smart social media strategies. Both Jet Blue and South West Airlines are 2 smaller US airlines with Famecounts in the top 20. In part this is due to their long-held customer service principles but also their novel use of the this newer media space. Southwest have games imbedded into their Fan-page that encourage the user to share with their Facebook friends. Easy, simple tactics that more brands should try to emulate.
And so back to Adidas and Nike. Well according to this slice of social media life, it is Adidas who are trumping their Amercian rival. Adidas Orginals has a score of 37.8% driven by its 3 million Facebook friends. As a follower of this myself, I know its good rich and engaging content, not just ads. This week for instance, we had the chance for a live chat with Adidas-star Snopp Dogg. I'm sure he'd love to know his famecount before he re-negotiates his next contract, well now he can use this great tool to find out.
Friday, 28 May 2010
A few months in the planning, 4 hours of content, 3 excellent Google speakers, 163 happy delegates.
Zoogle Day Poland has launched, here's to next year.
Steve Paler, Tango Zebra/You Tube @ Zoogle Poland
Artur Waliszewski Google PL @ Zoogle Poland
Jakub Potrzebowski ZO PL CEO @ Zoogle Poland
Monday, 17 May 2010
Tuesday, 13 April 2010
All networks clearly completed cleared their programming schedules to allow for 24hrs news. All commercials have been stripped from TV, radio, press and main internet portals until Wednesday at the earliest. All newspapers (paper and online) have changed their mastheads - such as market leading Gazeta Wyborcza below - as a mark of respect.
Same goes for TV station idents - they have all added the black ribbon of mourning.
On radio there has been a more subtle change. Perhaps I expected classic funeral march music on all stations. Actually the response has been more thoughful - music stations are still playing music, just more understated tunes, more reflective music. This is acutally much more emotive and a very appropriate response.
I guess this reflects the mood and actions of the nation. Everyone is in shock and very sad. But the overwelming belief in this country that has suffered more than its fair share of tradegy is one of 'it won't kill us, we will emerge stronger'.
Very strange and challenging times indeed....
Thursday, 8 April 2010
Yesterday the news that AOL would sell or close the social site, Bebo, effectively signaled the end of another once-successful social network which simply cannot compete with Facebook.
A couple of years ago Bebo was the only website that mattered in the playgrounds of the UK and Ireland when it hit the peak of coolness in 2007. Among 13- to 16-year-olds, Bebo was the place to be seen online, where members could blog, email each other, upload videos and design quizzes – while many adults just didn't quite get it.
AOL saw the potential in the site launched from a San Francisco living room by a husband and wife team and gobbled it up for an eye-watering $850m. Which even then analysts saw as a triumph of ego over due-dilgence.
It was the sites positioning and content that orginally set it apart from other sites and drove traffic to a peak of 40 million unique users in early 2008. An example of such content was the online drama serial Kate Modern.
However, it looks like AOL uninvested and misunderstood the brand Bebo. Compared to Facebooks 2,000 engineers; Bebo employed 40 - leading to technical issues which todays social networker has little patience for.
AOL aim to broaden appeal failed also. Moving away from a small but loyal audience was clearly an error. Figures from comScore show the dramatic shift – Bebo's monthly users in the UK fell by 60% from February 2009 to February 2010 to 3.8 million, while Facebook's grew 24% over the same period to 28.1 million.
So the still privately owned Facebook can count the passing of another social rival backed by big-spending corporates. ITV recently sold Friends Reunited for a mere $42m (just 14% of the purchase price). NewsCorps' My Space, a $580mill Murdoch punt, is struggling to re-position and losing share. And now Bebo goes.
Which all goes to show, people want to hang out where there friends are. So is there any hope for a non-monopolistic market in social networking?
Wednesday, 17 March 2010
Clearly the client was impressed with the idea and, rather predictably, was even more impressed when the agency proudly annouced that there had been zero media spend behind it - it just happened.
This irritated me slightly as it showed a lack of ambition and knowledge on how to really use the media - beyond the most important aspect - having a great idea.
Yes of course viral often means 'free'. There are 1000s of now globally famous virals that have just 'happened', they caught the public imagination, were shared and spread before they are consigned to the library of 'remember that one with the fat kid / kid cute / sexy girl / exploding coke bottle / guy falling off the tread mill ....'
However the vast majority of these are classic UGC that did not have the brief to sell / build awareness / create Excitment in a brand. They were simply a fun way to spend 10 secs to 3 mins.
When you are a brand in this space, it seems to me you have to follow a few rules. Here are some rules from some guys who do know what they are talking about in the viral space -- The Viral Factory. I found their words of wisdom in the BA Business Life magazine March 2010 edition and thought they were worth sharing, I have paraphrased a little bit so forgive me:
Rule 1: Respect the audience
If traditional advertising has been occasionally guilty of treating people like idiots - avoid this tendency line. People can and will talk back to you and about you - through blogs, comments etc.
And while the size of potential Internet audience has us delirious with excitement, bare in mind that if you get it wrong - it can go really really wrong.
Rule 2: Audience 1st, Marketing 2nd
When you buy a 30 sec TV spot - you want to Squeeze every last penny of value from the investment. And why not, its yours and you control it in an environment of apparent focused attention (the commercial break - however we've been talking about Ad Advoiders for 15 years)
With viral you have to earn the audience attention by giving them something they want to watch. So start with that and then figure out how to get key marketing messages across without ruining the idea you thought was so good in the first place.
What do people like? Well Hollywood has a pretty good grasp on this: people like to laugh, they like romance, they like watching people in jeopardy, they like sex, heros, cute things, and they like things that make you go WOW!
Rule 3: Get rid of barriers
If you want people to share what you've created, then make it easy and fun for them to do so. Use content-sharing tools and platforms like You Tube, Flickr, Facebook, Blogger. These are freely available and people are comfortable using them. Of course you can make you're own but that is an additional expense, when money spent (beyond creating the idea) should be focused on....
Rule 4: Promoting your viral
This should be done shamelessly and relentlessly especially in the 1st 2 weeks after realease. By getting into the 'top 100' of viral, work does disproportionately better as more people see and share.
You can focus on getting influencial people - journalists, commentators, well-followed bloggers etc - to spread your message.
However, a greater chance of success sits with having a viral promotional plan and budget in place. We use people like Go Viral to seed brand content- via social networks, content placements, SEO with behavourial targeting. There are 2 main approaches; "pull" seeding - one to many, or "push" content placement in high volume/traffic spaces.
Both are essentially charged on a pay per view model which adds some accoutability to this area and shows that great viral marketing campaigns don't just happen and they like any great marketing campaign, they need focus and investment.
The difference being, if you get it right in viral the idea will fly and your ROI is almost unimaginable - a was in the case of Evian's Rollerskating babies - which was 'planned' to get 2millions view and is currently on 58 million.
Friday, 5 March 2010
Kicking off session 2 - Jonathan Ornstein
Jewish life in Krakow
How HRH Prince Charles helped to build a Jewish Community centre in Krakow -but now the need to attract Jews back to Krakow given there are only 150 Jews in Krakow.
Interesting view on how most Jewish people come to Krakow on hertiage tours - and go from ghetto, to concentration camp, to another camp to a cemetary. He compared this with a 2nd generation Japanese going back to Japan - only to visit Hirosima and Nagasaki.
2nd speaker - Noam Kostucki
How selfishness is the best reason to cooperate
3rd - Marek Minakowski - chief scientist at One.pl - a leading local portal
He's going to have a stab at predicting the future - excellent
Bascially nothing will change as human brain will not change. Its still going to be a case of Pull and Push - as we pull from Google now and Push to Facebook
Pull might become the 'crystal ball' to which you can pose any question. And push will become some kind of 'perfect secretary' who protects you from the over-burden of infomation.
Hmmm interesting guy but not sure I caught all he said.
4th Speaker -Sandra Bichl
2+2 is less than 4....how we are not predisposed to teamwork (apparently in German TEAM stands for "great, someone else to do the work")
Moving on to our hidden talents as individuals - either you've found them and its working for you, or you have yet to discover them (thats nice to hear!)
5th - Sebastian Straube
At current rate of development - we need 3 more Earth's to keep us sustained. That could be a problem
Sustainovation is the answer he tells us.
Bottom of the Pyramid innovation - focusing on the worlds 4 billion who have less than $2/day
Cradle to Cradle innovation - closed cycles for zero footprint
Catalytic innovation - disruptive innovation for social change - such as giving up your time for free
Next - Alek Tarkowski - given I have about 20 mins of battery left, might not get thru the session.
How do you protect culture in the digital age.
It seems that building culture actually means building another building - cultural institutions could use the internet to supplement whats missing.
If instituations move online, they need:
Openess - making stuff available so someone, somewhere can help and find an answer
Sustainability - find ways to support creators over a long time
Durability - what would a 100 year Wikipedia look like?
Indeed the battery did cut out half way thru this talk - shame as it was one of the best (in my view) so far. He went on to talk about cultural curation and how this will become more and more important yet easier - even creating a playlist is an act of curation.
Session closed with an amazing recital by a cellist and acordian player - playing a modern composition by a young Polish musician. Excellent - there is more music to come later. Probably better to see that on http://tedxwarsaw.com/
Its 10am - And as promised we're off with a video from the founder of the TED TEDx why it was set up
Now its the organisier Ralph Talmont-brief housekeeping
1st speaker for precisely 18 mins-Ian Hernandez. "Ever been to the circus?" Trapeze Acrobats and flying
Its all about collaboration. 3 stages
1) Competition: In a positive sense, going the extra mile, self-imporvement
2) Co-operation: its all about agreement
3) Collaboration: its all about creation
Summing up - lifes lessons come from very unusual places, and that achieve remarkable things you need the same trust and committment as an acrobat.
2nd Speaker - Lori Kent - importance of the arts in human culture
30.000 yrs of art in 18 mins - here we go - Cavemen, The Greeks, Dark Ages, Renaissance artists = as superstars, Modernism, right up to the post-post modernism now.
7 things to love about artists: they ...
1 - see well ... have vision - imagination
2 - aritists find a problem
3 - are self-aware
4 - are experts at play - like finger painting as a child
5 - embrace difficulty - Michalango imagine looking at a block of white marble
6 - oopps missed that one
7 - reflect and critique. well before 'crowd sourcing'
By the way - its great seeing an artist present using her own pictures rather than ppt.
Asks us to make our own day more artful, and put it at center of what we do
3rd up - Sergei Sawin - how to build an innovative organistion
1 Have courage to explore - from rubber to nokia phones
2 Know where you want to be in 10 years - if you can not predict the future invent it
3 See the world through your clients eyes - get out of the office
4 Focus on the job people are Tyringe to get done not on the product itself --
5 Discover your non-customers - eg use of the Wii by over 60s - bowling on you tube
6 Find out your lead users --
7 Foster collaborative creativity - Dutch ministry of transpostation has an amazing creavtivty facilty
8 Be open to new ideas
9 Prototype - helps turn ideas into a reality - try and fail a few times - this helps
10 Prepare for tough resistence - innovators are like Rambo - limited resources and no support.
"When the wind of change is blowing you can either build a shelter ... or a windmill" syas the chinese proverb.
4th speaker - Hodge Hodgson
Building carbon-neutral economies. A project at Berlin University - building a building that produces more engery than the inhabitants consume
A solar decathlon architecture in Madrid in June 2010
Oh quick one - all done in 4 mins
Number 5 - Jacek Olechowski
Networks and Trust - can we trust the networks that bring us together?
Toyota, Anderson, Madoff - lose trust, lose everything
Efficient ways of building trust? Because lack of trust is the biggest barrier
Thats why networks can be efficient and builder of trust - eg simply being TEDx event at a level of trust develops between strangers
Peers vs. Hierarchy - everyone feels at the same level
Long term goal v deal driven - not common vision quick deal
homogeneous v too diverse - a few set of rules and values that people can agree on
The social networking sites that are winning are fulfilling certain needs
6th Speaker - Stephen Kines - we're flying through them - do not think everyones getting close to their 18 mins, certainly no buzzer used yet.
Man walks on stage with a cucumber and a condom - this is getting random now - whats the metaphor - oh he's a lawyer and its about protection.
How rules can kill and constrict the entrepreneur - hence a new biz model for his law firms without Billable hours - is that one going to catch on?!
And last up this session - Michal Malinowski
A story teller dressed in traditional Papua New Guinea outfit- setting up a digital repository for stories from all over the world. Quite a trippy end to the session.
Monday, 8 February 2010
So although us UK viewers were provided with excellent coverage by the BBC - it was obviously an ad-free environment. So today i had a review of the ads which wounds last night, ads costing c. $ 2 million for a 30 second spot.
With the Oscars, the Superbowl half time ad break is the U.S. creative industry's chance to really shine to an enormous audience live and recorded. And with eye-watering media costs - you'd expect some really great work.
But as ever, there were (in my opinion) winners and losers, saints and sinners. I reviewed the ads here at mashable.com
My clear favorite was from Homeaway.com - renting a home service which seeks to encourage holidayers away from hotels and into peoples rented home.
For me they got it spot on. Great creative idea, good use of celebs, and 30 sec media buy which leads you (and you really do want to see more) that are online to see a short film which Heralds the return of the most infamous family holidaying, the Griswalds of National Lampoon fame . I'm not going to provide a narrative -- just have a look here t0 watch / play more
The losers - well its hard to say this objectively, its more the ads that I found to stand-out because of their poor execution rather than outstanding work around them.
Sketchers...new 'MBT' like show - pretty much looking like a hastily arranged powerpoint create ad for 120 million people to see
And what of Pepsi and Coke? Well Pepsi had the year off to focus on social media, and Coke, well Coke threw money at the problem and invited the Simpsons to create some happiness. Nice enough but somehow left me disappointed.
Tuesday, 2 February 2010
But there will be a difference during the now legendary half-time TV commercial breaks. For the 1st time in a quarter of a century one of the 2 soft-drink giants will not be there to compete. PepsiCo - home of Pepsi, Gatorade, Mountain Dew and various salty snacks - this year will not be paying in the region of $ 3 million for a 30 second spot. This year, PepsiCo is putting everything into a $ 20mill social media led campaign called The Pepsi Refesh Project.
As part of this CSR scheme, the Purchase-based firm will give donations, ranging in value from $5,000 (€3,592; £3,140) to $250,000, to good causes in the US, with a budget of $20 million in all. Web users will be able to vote for the individuals, groups and organisations which they consider worthy of receiving this funding, with up to 32 grants being awarded every month.
AOL, MTV, NBCU Universal and Yahoo are among the media partners for this communications drive, while Pepsi will also sponsor a reality series, If I Can Dream, on Hulu, the video-on-demand platform.Facebook and Twitter will be among the other services Pepsi will employ in spreading its message.
What is interesting here are two things.
Firstly that Coke is also using social media to promote a huge CSR programme this year. But it is buying into the Superbowl airtime in order to promote its own scheme. Visitors to a dedicated page on Facebook will be able to view a sneak preview of one of these ads if they send a branded "virtual gift" is one of their friends on the service before the Super Bowl. Each time such a "gift" is delivered over duration of the month-long scheme, the beverage maker will award $ 1 to the Boys and Girls Clubs of America, with a total budget of $ 500,000.
So these two behemoths of FMCG marketing are attempting to play the same game but with different tools. Will Pepsi's purely social punt (delberate pun) see them victorious by creating a larger 'reward' pot and letting the power of the idea generate the traffic required. Or will Coke's 'shock and awe' tactic of using the immense Superbowl audience (ranging from 80-130 million individuals), who tend to deliberately view the half time ads (and indeed PVR them to play again and again), see Coke generate big numbers to this site.
Either way, heres the second interesting point. Both companies are now talking about a new post-digital age where 'experimentation is over'. A recognition of the value to them of digital media that allows and encourages a two-way dialogue.
Clearly it will be interesting to track the evolution of these 2 similar campaigns, sowing the seeds of interest in different ways. It will also be interesitng to see how may of the Superbowl ads (generally always especially created for the event) will have a social media elememt or at the very least a Facebook URL. And look out for more of the same at the next global event of this scale - FIFA 2010 in South Africa.
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
You Tube will show around 60 matches in the tournament, which starts in March, to a global audience. In India alone there is a potential online audience of 60-70 million (depending on source). IPL is currently broadcast by mainly pay-TV operations such as Sky TV in the UK. So its very likely this deal will open up the IPL brand to a huge audience.
Despite losing $470m per year, You Tube must see massive commercial opportunity to take on this deal. Thay will be looking to recoup investment by signing a global sponsor, plus local sponsors in key cricket markets (UK, Australia, Pakistan etc).
It appears that You Tube's live stream of U2 from the rose Bowl was the key testing ground for this move - 10 million viewer worldwide watched the concert. And it's clear that if IPL is a commercial and audience success, there will be more deals to follow.
All very interesting at a time when regulators in the UK are seeking to make live TV sports more accessible to audience by enforcing pricing regulations.
It also seems to me that this deal by You Tube is exactly what Channel4 (now a You Tube content provider) should have been looking to do after losing its grip on live sport after the 2005 Ashes. Channel 4 recently signaled its intentions to reclaim a position in sport by beating the BBC in buying the rights to London 2012 Paralympics coverage
Monday, 18 January 2010
While, according to the Guardian article on it The maths has as much scientific rigour as a game of 'rock, papper, scissors'. Blue Monday is now an integral part of the January news agenda, especially when there is no longer any snow to talk about. Showing, I guess, the potential strength of news content - create a day that did not exist before, sit back and wiat for it to grow. A bit like Mother's Day I suppose.
Anyway, as we're all meant to be an absolute low-ebb, I thought it appropriate to share this viral Coke on how to cheer up the Punters at this time of year. Put a dude in Coke machine, place in college Refectory and give away free stuff. Genius
Monday, 4 January 2010
Making predictions is a great way of starting the year for sure - especially when one of your resolutions is to blog more. Its also a great way to end up with egg on your face when none of your carefully crafted predictions comes true.
Clearly much depends on how well the global economy recovers (or continues to recover depending where you are). Sir Martin Sorrell has used most of the alphabet to describe the shapes of recovery. In the BRICS its a 'V' shape, while in the UK we're looking at the 'L'. Lets just hope its not the dreaded double dip 'W'.
Ok to the predictions:
1) Lets start with an easy one. Facebook will surpass 1/2 billion users well before the end of 2010. There is some science to this one - FB was growing at 500,000 new members a day at certain points in late 2009. Might be hard to keep that number but I don't see it slowing down, especially when you consider the potential for growth in large yet relatively untapped markets like Poland.
As a result, more later adopters will be touched by more social media. Potentially making social media a channel to market as well as marketing channel.
2) The UK election (one thing I can confidently predict before June 2010) will attempt to ape the 2008 US election in many ways. Presidential style debates have already been signed up to by the 3 major parties and with an election date looming, the Tories and Labour will employ every social media technique known to man - and hopefully a few we haven't really experienced yet.
3) The FIFA World Cup in South Africa in June/July will truly see the establishment of internet TV as a mainstream channel. Given the number of afternoon kick offs and South Africa's timezone compared to Europe - WC2010 will see millions of football fans viewing matches from their work desktops, their laptops and increasingly from their i-phones. Commercial broadcasters, all under pressure need to ensure they monetise this channel to make decent returns on the huge rights purchase that a FIFA world cup represents.
4) 2010 will be the year that Rupert Murdoch's much discussed 'online newspaper pay-walls' will get properly road tested. Murdoch's boffins have been stratching their collective heads for some time but apparently they are ready to go in 2010. Whether it be micro-charging or subscriptions - time will tell where the public are willing to pay or whether 'free' is what we now expect. And its not just the News Int titles that are desperate to realise cash based on their editorial investments. The Guardian, whilst being one of the best read online newspapers globally, is losing money hand over fist in the UK and simply must get its model right.
5) Perhaps as I'm not a massive user - I still feel that Twitter has much more to do to go from media phenomana to media powerhouse (in Facebook terms). Twitter appaears to be a long way from realising serious revenues (from advertising) and some of its audience may be under threat if the benefit it has felt from big celebrity names tweet less and less (Stephen Fry's self-imposed exile from all things 'social' and Asthon Kucher's threat to move off Twitter in the USA). Some media rules are true no matter what the medium - celebrities interest people, they sell magazines/newspapers, raise TV ratings and bolster Twitter numbers.
6)In the UK we see 'legalised' commercial TV product placement from the summer. Will the 'new' format realise the 140 million pound boost to broadcasters fortunes that the Culture Secreatry Ben Bradshaw has predicted? While the debate continues as to whether product placement should indeed come in (ISBA have just released a suprise U turn and are now against the idea) it will take the belief of advertisers, patience of consumers and willingness of producers for even a small proportion of this ambitious target to be reached.
7) Apple will release another piece of technology that will become quickly adopted and will have the marketing community pondering how best to use the new 'tablet' for communication purposes. It looks like late Jan might be the date Steve Jobs takes the stage and reveals all. Suffice to say, it will look great and we'll all want one.
So that's it - I know 7 is an odd number but 5 seemed lightweight and frankly I couldn't think of 10.
Maybe I'll come back in December and see how these got on.